TSUGU
Tell us what you want

Asking price

¥90M $600K

All-in cost

¥127M $847K

asking + fees + debt, less cash

True earnings per year

¥43M $287K

listed as ¥28M

Multiple

3.0×

all-in cost ÷ true earnings

Payback

3.0 years

at true earnings, before tax

Match score

91 / 100

Recurring revenue, self-running sales and support, price inside budget.

01Snapshot

Revenue
¥190M ($1.27M)
Customers
≈180, largest is 6% of revenue
Recurring share
85% (annual maintenance contracts)
Owner
62, founder and lead developer, no successor
Debt / cash
¥40M debt, ¥25M cash (net debt ¥15M)
Competing buyers
12 already in talks

02True earnings

What the business actually earns for a new owner, starting from the profit on the listing.

True earnings
Line¥ millions
Operating profit as listedAfter the owner's own compensation of ¥30M, which the listing shows separately.¥28M
Add back owner's compensationPaid to the founder on top of the profit shown. It goes to you after the deal.+¥30M
Cost of replacing the founderA senior engineer-manager in Osaka at market salary, including social insurance.−¥12M
Development cost that should be expensedYearly software work is capitalized on the balance sheet. Treat it as an ongoing cost.−¥3.0M
True earnings per year¥43M

The founder's pay is the whole story here. Japanese owners often take profit as salary for tax reasons, so the listed profit understates what the business earns.

03All-in cost

What you actually pay, including the fees that do not appear on the listing and the debt you take over.

All-in cost
Line¥ millions
Asking price+¥90M
Broker's minimum fee (buyer pays)The listing says “plus advisor fee”. The minimum is fixed regardless of deal size.+¥20M
Marketplace fee (2.2%)+¥2.0M
Net debt you take over¥40M bank loans less ¥25M cash.+¥15M
All-in cost to you3.0× · payback 3.0 years¥127M
Pursue

Verdict

Pursue at asking price. Move within two weeks.

At 3.0× true earnings this is fairly priced, and twelve other buyers are in talks, so a discount is unlikely. Offer the asking price with the founder retained for 12 months as a paid advisor. That converts the biggest risk, his knowledge of the code, into a handover.

05Questions to ask the seller

  1. 1.Who owns the source code, and is it documented well enough for a new engineer to ship the next regulatory update?
  2. 2.Customer churn by year for the last three years, with reasons.
  3. 3.Maintenance price per customer and when it was last raised.
  4. 4.Estimated cost and timing of the next reimbursement-rule update.
  5. 5.Will the founder stay 12 months as an advisor, and at what fee?

06Documents to request next

  • Three years of financial statements with the itemized schedules (勘定科目内訳書)
  • Customer list with contract start dates, prices and cancellations
  • Software development cost schedule and capitalization policy
  • Bank loan schedule and any personal guarantees by the owner
  • Employment contracts and salary list for all nine staff

07How the succession would work

Sign a share purchase with the founder staying as a part-time advisor for 12 months. Hire a Japanese engineer-manager before closing. Keep the support team and pricing unchanged for the first year. Monthly English reports from TSUGU cover cash, churn and the regulatory calendar.

This sample is a composite based on real Japanese listings we evaluated, with region, size and amounts changed. Figures in yen are converted at ¥150 = $1. Adjustments reflect our judgment and are shown line by line so you can check them. This is analysis, not legal, tax or investment advice.