TSUGU
Tell us what you want

Asking price

¥120M $800K

All-in cost

¥115M $764K

asking + fees + debt, less cash

True earnings per year

¥19.5M $130K

listed as ¥22M

Multiple

5.9×

all-in cost ÷ true earnings

Payback

5.9 years

at true earnings, before tax

Match score

82 / 100

Good business, but the all-in price is 5.9× true earnings. Worth it only at a lower bid.

01Snapshot

Revenue
¥310M ($2.07M)
Top client
48% of revenue (a listed company's subsidiary)
Recurring share
60% (maintenance and operations, renewed yearly)
Owner
67, handles sales personally, wants to retire within a year
Debt / cash
¥15M debt, ¥45M cash (net cash ¥30M)
Engineers
Average tenure 9 years, two are over 60

02True earnings

What the business actually earns for a new owner, starting from the profit on the listing.

True earnings
Line¥ millions
Operating profit as listedTen consecutive profitable years.¥22M
Add back one-off retirement paymentPaid to a former director last year. Will not recur.+¥4.0M
Add back owner's private expensesCompany car and life insurance for the owner, booked as business costs.+¥1.5M
Cost of replacing the owner's sales roleA sales manager who can hold the top account, at Tokyo market salary.−¥8.0M
True earnings per year¥19.5M

The listed profit is roughly honest. The adjustment that matters is the owner's sales role: someone has to keep the top client.

03All-in cost

What you actually pay, including the fees that do not appear on the listing and the debt you take over.

All-in cost
Line¥ millions
Asking price+¥120M
Broker's minimum fee (buyer pays)Not shown on the listing. Adds 18% to the price.+¥22M
Marketplace fee (2.2%)+¥2.6M
Less net cash you receive¥45M cash less ¥15M debt.−¥30M
All-in cost to you5.9× · payback 5.9 years¥115M
Negotiate

Verdict

Negotiate. Bid ¥85M, walk away above ¥95M.

At asking, you pay 5.9× true earnings after netting out the cash. A bid of ¥85M brings that to 4.0×, in line with what small Japanese IT companies actually trade for. The seller has had the listing up for four months with few bidders, so there is room.

Suggested bid: ¥85M $567K

¥85M asking + ¥22M broker fee + ¥1.9M marketplace fee = ¥108.9M all-in, less ¥30M net cash = ¥78.9M net cost, 4.0× true earnings.

05Questions to ask the seller

  1. 1.Top client's contract: term, renewal date, notice period, change-of-control clause.
  2. 2.Who manages the top client day to day, other than the owner?
  3. 3.Will the owner stay 12 months, and would he accept part of the price as an earn-out?
  4. 4.Engineer roster with age, tenure and salary. Any planned retirements?
  5. 5.Overtime policy and actual hours for the last 12 months.

06Documents to request next

  • Three years of financial statements with itemized schedules
  • Revenue by customer for three years
  • Top five client contracts
  • Employee roster with age, tenure, salary and overtime records
  • Bank loans and guarantees

07How the succession would work

Share purchase with 15–20% of the price as an earn-out tied to the top client renewing. Owner stays 12 months as chairman with a sales handover plan. Appoint the longest-serving engineer as operations lead.

This sample is a composite based on real Japanese listings we evaluated, with region, size and amounts changed. Figures in yen are converted at ¥150 = $1. Adjustments reflect our judgment and are shown line by line so you can check them. This is analysis, not legal, tax or investment advice.